PNG Export Volumes Stagnant Despite Global Commodity Price Boom

PNG Export Volumes Stagnant Despite Global Commodity Price Boom (file Photo)

​Papua New Guinea's economy is now forecast to grow by 4.7 per cent in 2025, surpassing earlier expectations of 3.8 per cent growth, according to ANZ International economist Kishti Sen. He said that if this projection materialises, this year could rank among the best in terms of economic performance over the past decade.

Sen highlighted that although PNG is benefiting from record global commodity prices, export volumes have remained largely unchanged. He explained that it will take at least three years before PNG can significantly expand its export volumes, suggesting the country is currently operating at close to full capacity.

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According to Sen, capacity expansions at existing mining operations are expected to drive growth in non-rural commodities over the next two years. In the agriculture sector, farmers are responding to high prices by planting more cocoa and coffee, which has already resulted in peak export levels last month.

Sen also noted that stronger export earnings have helped reduce PNG’s foreign currency backlog, briefly restoring stability to the foreign exchange market in early May. He added that this improvement in foreign currency availability signals a healthier economic environment for businesses and investors.

Despite global tariff tensions, PNG's trading relationships with key partners such as the United States and China remain strong, Sen observed. He stressed that PNG’s growth opportunities lie in the expanding Asian middle class, with whom PNG is already engaging.

Sen also mentioned a rise in consumer demand, particularly in the Highlands region, where communities are reportedly more "cashed up." Coastal and island provinces are also expected to benefit due to persistently high cocoa prices.

 Sen said that while PNG's export values have surged thanks to commodity prices, the volumes are static. Nevertheless, he pointed out that business investment is improving, and the outlook for publicly funded infrastructure is promising.

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